Excellencies,
Ladies and Gentlemen,


The Baltic Institute for Strategic and International Studies has assembled for its first seminar. All of us associated with this Institute have come to refer to it in affectionate terms -- we call it BASIS.

As you have already inferred, the name BASIS is more than just an acronym, more than just a fond term of endearment. Webster's Dictionary defines BASIS as that on which anything rests, as a support or foundation, or, and I quote, "a fundamental principle". It is exactly this foundation, built of the fundamental and time-honoured principles of foreign policy, that we are seeking to lay in establishing BASIS. Our work will proceed in the form of conferences and panel discussions as well as publishing our transactions. I hope that BASIS will become an institution of both research and learning, and will create an atmosphere in which we can look beyond the day-to-day, beyond tactical imperatives to the long-term requirements of foreign policy. BASIS intends, at once, to be scholarly and policy-oriented, in the finest tradition of Sun-tzu, Clausewitz, and Hans Morgentau.

BASIS was born on October 28, 1993.

Today is the 16th of December. Forty-eight days from the birth of the idea to its realization is a short period. Nevertheless, we already have the written consent to serve on the Institute's International Board by Professor Shlomo Avineri from the University of Jerusalem, President Algirdas Brazauskas of Lithuania, Dr. Zbigniev Brzezinski from Washington, the President of the Club of Rome Dr. Diez-Hochleifner, Major General Aleksander Einseln, the journalist Roland Evans from Washington, Dr. Ziad Fariz from Amman, Dr.Lars Fredén from Stockholm, Dr. Paul Goble from Washington, Ambassador Max Jakobson from Helsinki, the Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Professor Boris Meissner from Köln, who is going to chair our first panel and introduce you to the working regulation of our Institute, Harri Männil from Venezuela, Sir Arvi Parbo from Australia, the Mayor Anatoli Sobchak of St.Petersburg, President Guntis Ulmanis of Latvia, Dr. George Urban from London and Professor Werner Weidenfeld from the Federal Republic of Germany. I was especially moved by the letter from George Kennan in which he wishes success to the Institute and to all of you and asks me to keep him in touch with the work of the Institute, at the same time feeling sorry that in his 90th year doctors have forbidden flights for him. As you all know, George Kennan began his diplomatic career in the United States Foreign Service in 1928 by serving in the Baltic states and first set his foot on Estonian soil on March 29, 1929, which happened to be Good Friday. The lines of his diary describing our 'white nights' are able to transfer into our time the deep affection for the Baltic states he has felt to this day.

At the eleventh hour, on the 12th of November, we sent our invitations and a programme for the first conference, and in spite of the very short preparation time your response to the invitation has been active. I am very grateful to you for that. Between 9 p.m. and midnight yesterday the Board of the Institute held its first session to lay down the future forms of work and perspectives. We thought it would be right to hold the Institute's workshops and lectures in Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius and other European cities, since the Baltic States have some experience which can and must be shared with the peoples of Europe. The Board agreed that the primary task of the Institute should be to suggest ideas to political decision-makers. Another essential point is the recommendation to address global issues and to inform the world of our opinion on the other parts of the world, in other words, in this shrunk global village of ours we are obliged to put in a word about everything and to teach. We have no right to hide our light under a bushel. Our candle will cast a sharper light on the actual European problems than, say, the grey footlights of Mr. Owen's negotiations.

Of this I have always been convinced and intend to convince you as well. Nearly three years ago I spoke in Chatham House. I am referring to it for two reasons. First, our working regulation will be similar to that of Chatham House: maximum outspokenness and maximum loyalty of the press. Facts, not estimates. Second, in 1990 I asked three rhetorical questions in Chatham House, which I repeated before the same audience at the beginning of this year, and which I reiterate for the third time here in Tallinn today, since the three years have not, unfortunately, reduced the topicality of the questions. Decide for yourselves.

"First: On the eve of the Second World War, democratic countries tried to buy peace for themselves at the expense of third countries. My question is: will history repeat itself?

"Second: I have been told by some politicians that the building of a democratic system in the Soviet Union is more important than the restoration of the independence of the Baltic countries. My question is: does one preclude the other?

"Third: I have been warned that Baltic independence would give rise to the 'domino effect', leading to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. My firm belief is that the independence of the three Baltic countries equally serves the national interests of the Baltic countries and those of the Soviet Union. My question is: why should these interests be viewed as being in conflict?

"With these words I finished my talk on the 6th of November, 1990, and you applauded in a friendly way. My three questions then seemed to you as a remote romantic vision, much like Dr. Livingstone's report on Africa in the Royal Geographical Society. I shall not take it amiss if you keep a sullen silence now: who wants, who cares to bother about this constantly changing world which never gets ready, unlike roast turkey on Christmas Eve?"

I admit that in 1993 Chatham House also applauded in a friendly way.

Another quote is from my speech on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the Republic on February 24 this year:

"I appeal to the world, I appeal to the Estonian people with a word of warning. Regrettably, the democratic rearrangements of our neighbour state are retreating before a new, aggressive conception of foreign policy, oriented to neo-colonialism. Regrettably, we are facing a real danger that all treaties of recent years on arms reduction and confidence building - which were welcomed with such sincere delight - might be turning into mere pieces of paper. I am directing your attention to a new foreign policy conception of the Russian Federation, published in the journal "Diplomatichesky Vestnik". With a cynical outspokenness, its author Karaganov claims that Russia is to pursue an active post-imperialist policy. With a cynical outspokenness Karaganov declares that they have to start with Estonia and Latvia. And unafraid to find himself in the same seat with bourbons, or - why not - even with Dr. Joseph Goebbels, or - why not - even with the so-called Academician Vyshinsky, who has gone on record both as the stage director of Moscow terror trials and the ambassador of his state to the United Nations, Karaganov foretells: the world will approve the economic sanctions of Russia against Estonia and Latvia. Russia continues to be more like a continent than a state, armed to the teeth with nuclear missiles, but also with the world's biggest propaganda machine. Estonia and Latvia continue to be among the smallest states of Europe like 75 years ago, an eyesore to the empire-minded, since it was us who had brought the forbidden ideas of democracy from Europe; it was us who had brought along to their side of the iron curtain the parliamentary tradition from Europe, which infected the Russian democracy; our country, this foot of ground here was the cradle of a multi-party system, of confidence in free market economy and in human rights - ideas and practices which began to spread here until they reached the shores of the Pacific, ideas and practices most dreaded by a colonial state like plague was dreaded in the middle ages. And what if not the middle ages is it? Esteemed heads of state, what Karaganov demands from you is much the same as Hitler demanded in Munich: a legitimate right to use their armed forces for establishing a new rule on the territories of foreign states, the so-called near abroad. Does this include Alaska? The mouth of the Danube? Port Arthur and Harbin?"

The speech was met with some criticism, if you happen to remember. Unfortunately, it is even more topical today than it was at the beginning of the year.

Thus it is our responsibility to learn and to teach Europe. A Reuter correspondent sent a dispatch from Tallinn yesterday morning saying that the recent parliamentary election in Russia had brought the Baltic republics to a "state of shock". My dear anonymous hero of Reuter's: join us in this hall, and you will satisfy yourself that we are anything but shocked. The Baltic states have always emanated hope, but unlike Europe we have not lived in illusions; we have not used the words "cold war" with regard to places where the blood of the victims was hot; nor have we spoken of a "cold peace" where there is neither peace nor cold peaceful reason.

This is why we came in need of BASIS, and with these words, Ladies and Gentlemen, it is my pleasure to declare the inaugural conference of BASIS open and to thank you for your attention.

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